OR: More News From the Out of Touch
Published on October 11, 2004 By CrispE In Politics
"I think the price is above what's justified by the fundamentals of the marketplace," John Snow said. "It's out of line with the fundamentals, and there will be a movement back toward the fundamentals, which means a lower price."

John Snow, Secretary of the Treasury, is George Bush's point man on the economy who seems to think (noting the quote above) that oil is overvalued relative to the supply and demand in the worldwide economic system. The oil market this morning reacted to this revelation by rising by as much as another 1% and there is no sense among the traders that prices will slip any time in the near future. Once again we see Bush advisors who don't seem to understand the problems created by an increasingly tenuous and dangerous international situation.

It is interesting that Mr. Snow seems to be echoing the Saudis who are a seemingly broken record of "we will increase production, we will increase production, we will increase production." However the truth is that the Saudis and OPEC have seldom had U.S. interests in mind when it comes to the oil situation. Remember when OPEC said they wanted to produce to a oil target of between $20 and $25 per barrel?

Now, you should understand by now from living in a free market economy that when oil is over $50 that OPEC companies make twice as much money, right? I mean, does it make sense if you could sell your house for $200,000 that you would want to sell it for $100,000? How about a car company that sells you the new Porsche Boxster for $50,000 when someone will pay $100,000 for it?

A deeper problem exists though in the perception that the Bush administration has that government should simply be a tax reduction system. It was noted in the debates last week that Bush has not vetoed a spending bill in 4 years. It was not noted that tax reduction, at first good for the middle class in terms of the marriage penalty tax elimination has not helped the middle class since with the exception of those with large families. My own return increased by $40 last year.

Meanwhile, the government runs billions more into debt, increasingly lowering the dollar's value around the world and making oil even more expensive. But, the Bush administration got passed even more tax reductions for businesses just today.

When you look at the concept of government as a business it is not unlike any other. That is, it has a range of product and services and in order to be successful it must be responsive to the people that use it's products and services and to the shareholders (that is you and me).

The first key to success in that sense is respect for the taxpayer. But this administration, when challenged on the budget or on spending acts as if you are not entitled to your opinion. How dare you challenge the White House on the budget? Don't you know we are in a war? Don't you know that we are the boss and that you are just a user of governmental services?

You might get the idea that it is the citizen who is the terrorist when we don't give blind support to the Bush policies that have led us where we are. More and more economists tell us that oil prices over $50 is disasterous for us. More and more know that without cutting the deficit we will pass on trillions of dollars of debt to our grandchildren and wreak any chance of social security lasting much longer.

Meanwhile, the Bush administration is supposedly working on more tax cuts for W's political base, the ones with incomes over $200,000.

Does anyone see how disasterous this would be?


Comments (Page 4)
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on Oct 11, 2004
Ah, yes I see now what you meant -- apologies!
on Oct 11, 2004
No harm, no foul.

- GX
on Oct 11, 2004

Reply #39 By: COL Gene - 10/11/2004 8:21:44 PM
Baker Street

You ask a good question. How did George W. get into Yale? Even better, how does one get into Harvard Grad School with a "C" Average? I have been in contact with George's old Prof from Harvard (Econ) and he said George W. was a POOR student and had ideas that made no sense. How did he become an Officer in the Air Guard? Daddy!!!

How did George W. get into his two oil companies? Not only did he not succeed but the issue of where his investors came from is a great question. The same thing is true about how he got the 2% of the Texas Rangers. He became Governor because of his father and his connections. We all know how he got into the White House- about 20,000 voters in Florida were confused by the ballot and he became president. If you changed the name on his resume up to the point he wangled the Governorship of Texas, he would have ,at best ,been a manager in a WaWa market!


What a crock! We've had the discussion about GW and getting in the white house. Col, get over it. He won, he's in and ain't nothing you can do to change that. You can go under the supposition that he'll get voted out but that's it. So quit your complaining. #2 all it takes to make officer anymore is a college education
So if I understand you (I may not) "IF" GW gets re-elected we're going to hear you complaining for *another* 4 years???
on Oct 11, 2004
No Drmiler - If Bush is reelected we will pay in more ways than you could guess. He has done very little of any real worth from the days of his DWI's to the Iraq War. Without his daddy and the power of the Bush name( earned by 41 not 43), George W. is a very small man. javascript:editor_insertHTML('message','')
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on Oct 11, 2004
drmiler:

Even if you like the President it's ok to point out both inconsistency in policy and problems with decisions made by the government. Part of living in a free country is accepting that there are other views than your own, that they could be valid and that there are better ways to do things than what we are doing them now.

This article points out that Bush and his administration have a very tenuous connection with the economic realities in the U.S. and world. That you or others would disagree is fine. It's not personal. We blog because we care (sort of a combination of Monsters Incorporated and Charles Dickens).
on Oct 11, 2004
We all know how he got into the White House- about 20,000 voters in Florida were confused by the ballot and he became president.


Except the Col misses the fact that MANY US Soldiers did not have their vote counted in Florida. That and a recount in a state must be done by all Counties for it to be legal and not by select few heavily democratic counties, if that Florida Illegal Recount had gone through GORE WOULD HAVE STOLE THE ELECTION.

- GX
on Oct 11, 2004

Reply #49 By: COL Gene - 10/11/2004 10:13:32 PM
No Drmiler - If Bush is reelected we will pay in more ways than you could guess. He has done very little of any real worth from the days of his DWI's to the Iraq War. Without his daddy and the power of the Bush name( earned by 41 not 43), George W. is a very small man


As are you! BTW that is your opinion NOT mine.
on Oct 12, 2004
Daiwa:

Just as an update, the IEA said this morning that DEMAND for energy was rising faster than expected. Shouldn't John Snow's intelligence in this matter be a little better than the IEA? Actually, I have reports from independent journalists that say that the IEA forecast this morning was lower than what is really expected.

Now, do you see why I am concerned?
on Oct 12, 2004
If Snow were correct about the market, oil should be at $25 per barrel since he has been "negotiating" with OPEC and the Saudis for quite a while, always says that prices will equalize and that the fundamentals favor price reduction. He said that at $35, at $40, at $45, at $50...... You get the idea he doesn't know what he's talking about?


It is not the Saudi's driving the price of oil, and not really benefitting all that much since most of their oil is in long term contracts. It is the spot market, which is way overpriced, that is driving the spot market price, and making a lot of speculators happy. So no amount of negotiations beween Saudi and Snow other than increasing production (Which Saudi Arabia did) can affect the spot market price. And the increase did not quell the market run up due to instability in Venezulea, Nigeria, and the Gulf.

Unless those 2 countries go up in an inferno, the price will start to come down. To $25? Probably not anytime soon, but Prices in the $30s are to be expected in the next 6 months barring any other instability arising.
on Oct 12, 2004
Dr. Guy:

Well, if you and I lived close to one another I'd bet you a beer it wouldn't happen but since we're not, let's just say that if it does in 6 months I will write an article about the wisdom you showed and if it doesn't (I'd say less than 10% chance now that $50 has become a base price) you do the same for me. That would be on or before March 12, 2005. Agreed?

If it were just oil I might agree, but with the falling dollar and increasing demand, it really would surprise me.
on Oct 12, 2004
No, *GEORGE BUSH* has *NEVER* done *ANYTHING* *WRONG*

NOT *EVER*

*insane laughter*
on Oct 12, 2004
Myrrander:

Why "insane" laughter? Wouldn't it "rational" laughter done after careful consideration? Like say 20 or 30 nanoseconds?

on Oct 12, 2004
no, it's just I picture Drmiler insanely cackling while he types some of the things he *DOES* with *ASTERISKS* all *OVER* the place
on Oct 12, 2004
Ok, I get it (not real often....but that's a different blog).
on Oct 12, 2004
Ok, a question that is pertinent to the high oil prices.

Didn't Kerry want higher prices (via taxes) on the premise that it would force Americans to use less oil, produce cars with higher gas mileage, etc?

Whether it is from market forces or taxes, we now have higher prices. Shouldn't the Dems be happy? Given that the higher prices will need to be in place for an extended period of time in order for the adjustment that Kerry wanted to take place, the Dems should be hoping that the prices stay high for quite a while.
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