OR: More Bush Where the Last One Came From
Published on August 11, 2004 By CrispE In Politics
We want the world to be happy, like us. We want terrorism removed from the Middle East. We will say that we want democracy, free trade and general abundance. Of course, to do this, we might have to do a little inventing. But Americans won't mind, they like invention.

Since the war ended in Iraq last year the quiet voices in the Bush Administration (Wolfowitz, in particular, but Rumsfeld to a degree) have been considering what our "next best move" is in the Middle East. Now that Mr. Bush is in a re-election campaign the strategy of reworking the Middle East (in our image) has been underplayed as the continuing Iraq resistance gets more and more organized and violent. But increasingly the Iranians are becoming more and more fearful (stepping up troop deployments on the border with Iraq) and retaliatory (arresting anyone who crosses the Tigris).

The Iranians, more than Iraqis, have something to fear from the U.S. Iran has been a sore spot with the U.S. since the hostage crisis in the late 70's and the animosity over terrorism, possible nuclear weapons development and radical Muslim thought (from a very conservative inner circle in government) is more than enough justification for the Bush administration to move forward. Add to the mix that they have openly supported the "resistance" in Iraq and you have the makings of another spring storm across the desert.

Up until now the U.S. has acted unilaterally in the Middle East to rid the world of the ravages of Saddam Hussein, his family and their friends. Even those Arabs who were our allies (the Saudis, Turks and Quwaitis) appreciated the spot we felt we were in and officially, at least, were not in a position to oppose our actions. But military action against Iran poses a more difficult scenario and could threaten to forge an alliance out of strange bedfellows (Russia, France, Germany and the rest of the Middle East not controlled by the U.S.).

Consider the alternatives for the U.S. and you quickly get a picture of the worst case scenarios if we don't march on Iran next spring. Iraq is costing the U.S. in lives and dollars much more than what we want to admit. By handy accounting methods (charging military requests and troops against other allocations) we are spending ever increasing amounts to stabilize the country without calling it spending in Iraq. The propoganda war is being lost on a daily basis in the Middle East. One sign of the frustration came this week when Al Jazeera had their Baghdad office closed for not supporting the "Iraqi" government. (Remember, freedom of the press is an American, not Iraqi freedom). Of course, the Iraqi government was elected by....hmmm, well, chosen by us and relies on us for security but closing down a press organization couldn't have been inspired by us, could it?

CNN reported:
"The Paris-based media watchdog group Reporters Without Borders agreed, calling the closure "a serious blow to press freedom."
U.S. officials have been highly critical of Al-Jazeera's reporting."

Ultimately the muslim extremists are counting on the U.S. to get tired of fighting and go home (they've read about Viet Nam too). This would be perfect for Iran as an alliance between them and the Iraqis would solidify a good portion of Middle Eastern oil. This is not a scenario Bush can allow as Iraq very well would become the breeding grounds for terrorism he says it was before the war.

So not being able to leave, can we just hold the line? Well, no, once again, consider Viet Nam. The alternatives then are either to ally with Iran (ok, stop rolling on the floor) or invade. We most certainly can use the same intelligence that we had on Iraq to justify it and indeed that intelligence is being written daily. I think the Iranian American Defense League must have at least a few defecting lieutenants available to testify that the Iraqis have WMD's too!

Once again the American people will be "told" that it is the only thing we can do, must be done to protect our freedoms.

But until the election is over, Iran doesn't even exist to the Bush administration. But I hear the spring is lovely in Teheran!



Comments
on Aug 11, 2004
I believed before the Iraq war and continue to believe today that Iran and North Korea are greater threats to our national security...
on Aug 11, 2004
of course Iran and North Korea were and are bigger threats- anything is bigger than nothing.

And we will never war against Iran or North Korea for the simple reason that Bush has no personal agenda or vendetta against the leaders of those countries; the sole reason we went into Iraq.
on Aug 11, 2004
There are a few problems with your post other then your concern that Iran is a threat to Middle East stability. I would agree that Iran is a danger to Middle East stability because Iran has been a large supporter of international terrorism for many decades now, ever since the fall of the Shah while maintaining a strategic location in the Persian Gulf.

But I do not believe that Iran should be our next move after we build some form of stability in Iraq. This is because of its geographical location and also it geopolitical situation.

First, Iran would be bordered by two fledgling democracies once Iraq stabilizes: Afghanistan and Iraq. With the people in these two countries being able to build their own societies through elections and the freedom of choice, I believe it will have a very influential effect on the populous in Iran. This is because over half of the population in Iran (in fact the entire Middle East) is under the age of 18. There have already been some changes in the sociopolitical makeup in Iran because the ruling government is very fearful of losing control due to the younger generation wanting freedoms other people enjoy elsewhere. Having two countries on either side of Iran enjoying political freedom will only help accelerate this yearning for the younger generation to want freedom, so I believe that a military invasion would only confuse the situation. Therefore the geopolitical and geographical location of Iran does not necessarily warrant any military activity unless the nuclear question gets out of control.

So instead I believe the next step in our War on Terror should be Syria. This is because the ruling political party in Syria is the same political party which Saddam was a part of—the Baath Party. They have very similar political leanings to the Baath Party under Saddam and openly support terrorism throughout the Middle East and the world. In fact terrorist groups have offices with signs out front in Damascus which claim which terrorist group they are affiliated to and are openly supported by the government. Syria also is dominating the political landscape of Lebanon and still maintains a standing army within its borders. In fact, much like Saddam claiming that Kuwait was a part of Iraq, the Syrian government maintains today that Lebanon is rightfully theirs as well. Terrorist groups commonly cross the Syrian border into Israel and commit attacks against Israel and its population with terrorist attacks. Syria also maintains a large stockpile of chemical weapons and in fact may be the place where the Iraqi chemical weapons went before the U.S. invaded Iraq. Syria also have killed thousands of its own people just because they disagree with the ruling Druze (study the Hama Massacre if you want to know the truth.)

All these reasons and more are why I believe that Syria should be our next move in the Middle East. Removing Syria as a supporter of terrorist activities would help stabilize the Middle East because it would help relieve some pressure on Israel since Israel is surrounded on all sides by countries who wish to destroy them. By giving Israel a better security situation, it would allow Israel to be able to make more “concessions” toward the Palestinians and other Arab states which would further the peace process more then any invasion of Iran would.

This is because the problem with all Arab countries in the Middle East is Israel. In fact today I just heard that Iran was working on missiles which would be able to strike Israel. Why would Iran say this other then their hatred toward Israel? But unfortunately Israel has nothing more to give in the peace process due to their unsecured location. They cannot give up land since Israel is already only seven miles across at its most narrow geographical point. They cannot give up weapons since there is over a dozen countries which “hate” Israel and would love to see their destruction. Therefore removing Syria as a neighboring threat would possibly allow Israel to disarm some or give up some land because there would be one less of a neighboring threat.

Therefore Syria should be next in the War on Terror because it is more of a logical step in Middle East peace…
on Aug 11, 2004
Middle East peace won't happen until Palestinian terrorism is brought under control.

There is quite a bit of diplomacy to play out in Iran. If we're lucky, we will be able to peacefully verify that Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons.

The next regime to be violently changed could be Sudan.
on Aug 11, 2004
I am personally afraid if Bush would tackle a real threat, like North Korea. I don't know if he could handle it. I am also convinced he could not handle the upcoming ROC-PRC war, which thanks to treaties, we must get involved in.
on Aug 11, 2004
Bush is currently tackling North Korea with 6 party diplomatic talks (US, Japan, China, Russia, NK, SK).

Compare that to Clinton who tackled North Korea by giving them a nuclear reactor.
on Aug 12, 2004
kram11:
I'm not saying Iran is a threat. It is perceived that way by the administration. The Bush people seem to think that military action is required in Iran's case because they don't believe in muslim countries changing to democracy without "our help". Syria present less of a military issue because the country essentially has a token army. Iran's army is large and well equipped by comparison.
What bothers me is that instead of this being an election issue it is being hidden away so that the voter doesn't know about it until a) Bush wins and Iran becomes a "must do" or Kerry wins and it becomes a "won't do."
on Aug 12, 2004
Madine:
You note that Bush is dealing with North Korea through talks. Do you think they have been at all successful? I mean, Korea seems to be playing the "diplomats to the front, nuclear weapons developers to the rear" game. Doesn't sound any more or less fruitful than Clinton to me.
As to the Palestinian question, did you see "Control Room". Good documentary on how different we and the Arabs see the situation in the Middle East. It is amazing how the administration doesn't get it that the people of the Middle East don't separate the palestinian issue from the Iraqi, but the U.S. acts as if the they are worlds apart.
on Aug 12, 2004
The fact that we are engaging in talks with North Korea refutes the myth that Bush is not doing anything about it.

The talks have not been completely successful. That is why more talks have been scheduled for September. Diplomacy is a long and difficult process. I don't know if it will be successful or not, but I think we should try before we use military action.

I would disagree that demanding a complete, verifiable, and irreversible disarmnament of North Korea's nuclear weapons is the equivalent to giving them a nuclear reactor.

How do you think we should handle North Korea?

It seems to me that many Arab leaders use the Palestinian issue to distract their people so they do not rise against their corrupt rule.

CNN
on Aug 12, 2004
Madine:
I have been looking at North Korea for some time now in terms of writing an article about the situation. For now, I would say that we are paying "only lip service" to the idea that our policy is "tough." In actuality, the people trying to change the North Koreans are the Chinese who actually got the North Koreans to set up an "enterprise" zone to attract business from the U.S. However, U.S. restrictions on trade with the country (the Bush administration shooting itself in the foot....again) don't allow for it!
I think you may need to rethink your ideas on Arab leaders. They don't need to distract their people from their corrupt rule. It's too "in your face" for that. I think most Arabs understand oppression (both from their leaders and Israel's) but rather see it in the human terms of lives lost and destroyed. I think we can agree that there is a whole bunch of that going on throughout Africa and the Middle East (regardless of the government involved).
on Aug 12, 2004
The talks with North Korea will never suceed, because for them to work, we must completly cave, and we do not need to do that. North Korea demands huge amounts of metal, money and oil for giving up their nuclear reactors, not including their weapons that supposedly do not exist. And they threaten nuclear war if we do not agree to this. That is why we will be at war with North Korea. If Bush caves, that only proves that he does not know how to handle real threats.
on Aug 12, 2004
Do you think the current crisis in Sudan, where Arab militias are slaughtering Africans, has anything to do with Palestine?

The US restrictions on trade with North Korea have been around long before President Bush. My understanding is that the 1995 agreement loosened the restrictions as long as North Korea stopped testing missles.

on Aug 12, 2004
Madine-

The Framework Agreement with North Korea negotiated under the Clinton Administration provided the North Koreans with a supply of economic aid, in the form of both oil and food and humanitarian aid. In return, North Korea was to cease a Plutonium enrichment program that it was operating in several facilities scattered around the mountains. I would not be so quick to criticize the Clinton administration's handling of the situation, however. They were faced with two courses of action - First, a strike on the facilities which would hopefully put them out of action but would certainly not guarantee an end to the enrichment program and may well spark all out war with North Korea, or second, a negotiated agreement. I spoke to one of the officials from State who actually negotiated the Framework, Ambassador Robert Gallucci, and he said they fully understood that the Koreans would most likely resume nuclear research in the future despite the agreement. They, however, simply wanted to buy the U.S. some time, in a manner of speaking, to give us more ample opportunity to deal with that particular situation when it sprung up again. It was considered far preferable to a strike on a DPRK which, by all estimates, quite possibly had produced between one and three nuclear weapons which could, if provoked, be launched on targets from Tokyo to Los Angeles.

The fact is that in '94 and '95 when the Clinton administration brokered that deal with the DPRK many of the current members of the Bush administration called it appeasment and treacherous. Now, when faced with the same situation, they abandon their policy of preemption and slink back to what they once denounced. The U.N. won't take any real action against the DPRK because of the Chinese veto, and the Chinese are eager to prop up their quirky friend because they don't want U.S. troops knocking around on the border. The Chinese simply do not, however, hold enough sway over Kim to deter him from any kind of offensive action against the U.S. or it's interests that he chooses to take. On top of all of this, add the essential withdrawl of much of the already weak 30,000 man U.S. military presence in South Korea. We have removed all U.S. service men and women from the DMZ, and some 12,000 I think it is have been withdrawn from the country, with more to follow. Finally, add the fact that the U.S. Military is stretched dangerously thin, with massive deployment in Iraq, and sizeable troop strength in Afghanistan and Kosovo. We simply would not have the resources immediately available to properly deal with a military operation on the Korean peninsula. U.S. Army policy demands at least a 2:1 numerical advantage over the enemy before engagement, and the DPRK has a standing army of about one million. Our action in Iraq has crippled our ability to deal with the DPRK in that we no longer can threaten imminent military action. The DPRK knows this, as does Iran, and the rest of the world community. Hence, we see the DPRK, for example, rattling the sabers -- because they know that right now we have our hands tied. When a nuclear crisis erupts, we've got our power tied up chasing ghosts in the desert. So I wouldn't categorize the Bush administration as inactive in dealing with the North Korean situation, just terribly inept.
on Aug 12, 2004
Madine:
The CBC (Canada) has a report last night in which the reporter stated that the militias that are doing the killing are muslim Arabs that the government support and the victims are blacks whom they see as insurgents (hmmm...like Palestine?). The reporter interviewed a man from the relief agencies who said that the killing was supported by the government because the militias were in fact "their people" (Arab versus African). It would seem when a group is oppressed, regardless of their race or heritage, they call for fairness and freedom.

As for the restrictions on North Korea, the Bush administration could encourage trade but would it play well with the right? I doubt it.